Signal Ledger
Nothing is edited or deleted after publication. Resolutions are appended with their evidence.
Economic: 74% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 3.0 standard deviations on 3 separate days within 815 km of Switzerland (nationwide), France (nationwide) and 4 more in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-02 02:00 UTC
74%
66–83%
Atmospheric: 72% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 2 separate days within 50 km of California, United States in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-11-01 02:00 UTC
72%
63–81%
Economic: 62% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 2.2 standard deviations within 665 km of Minnesota, North Dakota and 2 more, United States in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-09 02:00 UTC
62%
54–70%
Atmospheric: 68% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 211 km of Guam, United States; Northern Mariana Islands, United States and 2 more in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-09 02:00 UTC
68%
60–76%
Economic: 74% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 3.0 standard deviations on 3 separate days within 211 km of Guam, United States; Northern Mariana Islands, United States and 2 more in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-02 02:00 UTC
74%
67–82%
Economic: 66% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 2.0 standard deviations within 211 km of Guam, United States; Northern Mariana Islands, United States and 2 more in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 23 hours · 2026-10-03 02:00 UTC
66%
58–74%
Economic: 74% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 3.0 standard deviations on 3 separate days within 68 km of Namibia (nationwide) in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-02 02:00 UTC
74%
64–85%
Economic: 74% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 3.0 standard deviations on 3 separate days within 50 km of Somalia (nationwide) in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-02 02:00 UTC
74%
64–85%
Atmospheric: 68% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 819 km of Haiti (nationwide); Jamaica (nationwide) and 2 more in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-09 02:00 UTC
68%
59–77%
Geopolitical: 80% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 72+) on 3 separate days within 819 km of Haiti (nationwide); Jamaica (nationwide) and 2 more in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-02 02:00 UTC
80%
71–89%
Atmospheric: 69% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 819 km of Haiti (nationwide); Jamaica (nationwide) and 2 more in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 23 hours · 2026-10-03 02:00 UTC
69%
60–78%
Geopolitical: 66% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 60+) within 815 km of Switzerland (nationwide), France (nationwide) and 4 more in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-09 02:00 UTC
66%
57–75%
Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 665 km of Minnesota, North Dakota and 2 more, United States in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-02 02:00 UTC
84%
76–92%
Economic: 62% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 2.2 standard deviations within 819 km of Haiti (nationwide); Jamaica (nationwide) and 2 more in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-09 02:00 UTC
62%
53–71%
Geopolitical: 69% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 65+) on 2 separate days within 344 km of Sudan (nationwide) in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-11-01 02:00 UTC
69%
60–79%
Atmospheric: 68% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 665 km of Minnesota, North Dakota and 2 more, United States in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-09 02:00 UTC
68%
60–76%
Economic: 64% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 2.5 standard deviations on 2 separate days within 819 km of Haiti (nationwide); Jamaica (nationwide) and 2 more in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-11-01 02:00 UTC
64%
55–73%
Economic: 62% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 2.2 standard deviations within 50 km of California, United States in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-09 02:00 UTC
62%
53–71%
Economic: 74% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 3.0 standard deviations on 3 separate days within 50 km of California, United States in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-02 02:00 UTC
74%
66–83%
Economic: 74% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 3.0 standard deviations on 3 separate days within 665 km of Minnesota, North Dakota and 2 more, United States in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-02 02:00 UTC
74%
66–82%
Economic: 74% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 3.0 standard deviations on 3 separate days within 344 km of Sudan (nationwide) in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-02 02:00 UTC
74%
65–84%
Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 50 km of Somalia (nationwide) in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 23 hours · 2026-10-03 02:00 UTC
67%
57–77%
Geopolitical: 69% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 65+) on 2 separate days within 68 km of Namibia (nationwide) in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-11-01 02:00 UTC
69%
59–79%
Economic: 64% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 2.5 standard deviations on 2 separate days within 665 km of Minnesota, North Dakota and 2 more, United States in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-11-01 02:00 UTC
64%
56–72%
Economic: 64% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 2.5 standard deviations on 2 separate days within 815 km of Switzerland (nationwide), France (nationwide) and 4 more in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-11-01 02:00 UTC
64%
55–73%
Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 211 km of Guam, United States; Northern Mariana Islands, United States and 2 more in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-02 02:00 UTC
84%
76–92%
Geopolitical: 69% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 65+) on 2 separate days within 815 km of Switzerland (nationwide), France (nationwide) and 4 more in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-11-01 02:00 UTC
69%
60–78%
Geopolitical: 66% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 60+) within 68 km of Namibia (nationwide) in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-09 02:00 UTC
66%
56–76%
Economic: 66% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 2.0 standard deviations within 50 km of California, United States in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 23 hours · 2026-10-03 02:00 UTC
66%
57–75%
Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 50 km of California, United States in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-02 02:00 UTC
84%
75–93%
Geopolitical: 80% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 72+) on 3 separate days within 50 km of Somalia (nationwide) in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-02 02:00 UTC
80%
70–90%
Atmospheric: 68% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 50 km of California, United States in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-09 02:00 UTC
68%
59–77%
Economic: 66% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 2.0 standard deviations within 819 km of Haiti (nationwide); Jamaica (nationwide) and 2 more in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 23 hours · 2026-10-03 02:00 UTC
66%
57–75%
Geopolitical: 80% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 72+) on 3 separate days within 344 km of Sudan (nationwide) in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-02 02:00 UTC
80%
71–90%
Economic: 62% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 2.2 standard deviations within 211 km of Guam, United States; Northern Mariana Islands, United States and 2 more in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-09 02:00 UTC
62%
54–70%
Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 68 km of Namibia (nationwide) in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 23 hours · 2026-10-03 02:00 UTC
67%
57–77%
Economic: 62% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 2.2 standard deviations within 50 km of Somalia (nationwide) in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-09 02:00 UTC
62%
52–72%
Economic: 74% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 3.0 standard deviations on 3 separate days within 819 km of Haiti (nationwide); Jamaica (nationwide) and 2 more in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-02 02:00 UTC
74%
65–84%
Geopolitical: 80% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 72+) on 3 separate days within 68 km of Namibia (nationwide) in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-02 02:00 UTC
80%
70–90%
Geopolitical: 66% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 60+) within 819 km of Haiti (nationwide); Jamaica (nationwide) and 2 more in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-09 02:00 UTC
66%
57–75%
Economic: 62% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 2.2 standard deviations within 815 km of Switzerland (nationwide), France (nationwide) and 4 more in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-09 02:00 UTC
62%
53–71%
Geopolitical: 66% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 60+) within 50 km of Somalia (nationwide) in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-09 02:00 UTC
66%
56–76%
Economic: 64% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 2.5 standard deviations on 2 separate days within 50 km of Somalia (nationwide) in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-11-01 02:00 UTC
64%
54–74%
Economic: 66% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 2.0 standard deviations within 344 km of Sudan (nationwide) in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 23 hours · 2026-10-03 02:00 UTC
66%
56–75%
Economic: 62% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 2.2 standard deviations within 344 km of Sudan (nationwide) in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-09 02:00 UTC
62%
53–72%
Economic: 64% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 2.5 standard deviations on 2 separate days within 344 km of Sudan (nationwide) in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-11-01 02:00 UTC
64%
55–74%
Atmospheric: 69% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 50 km of California, United States in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 23 hours · 2026-10-03 02:00 UTC
69%
60–78%
Economic: 66% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 2.0 standard deviations within 665 km of Minnesota, North Dakota and 2 more, United States in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 23 hours · 2026-10-03 02:00 UTC
66%
58–74%
Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 819 km of Haiti (nationwide); Jamaica (nationwide) and 2 more in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 23 hours · 2026-10-03 02:00 UTC
67%
58–76%
Economic: 64% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 2.5 standard deviations on 2 separate days within 50 km of California, United States in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-11-01 02:00 UTC
64%
55–73%
Geopolitical: 69% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 65+) on 2 separate days within 819 km of Haiti (nationwide); Jamaica (nationwide) and 2 more in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-11-01 02:00 UTC
69%
60–78%
Atmospheric: 69% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 211 km of Guam, United States; Northern Mariana Islands, United States and 2 more in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 23 hours · 2026-10-03 02:00 UTC
69%
61–77%
Atmospheric: 72% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 2 separate days within 211 km of Guam, United States; Northern Mariana Islands, United States and 2 more in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-11-01 02:00 UTC
72%
64–80%
Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 815 km of Switzerland (nationwide), France (nationwide) and 4 more in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 23 hours · 2026-10-03 02:00 UTC
67%
59–76%
Atmospheric: 72% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 2 separate days within 819 km of Haiti (nationwide); Jamaica (nationwide) and 2 more in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-11-01 02:00 UTC
72%
63–81%
Economic: 66% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 2.0 standard deviations within 815 km of Switzerland (nationwide), France (nationwide) and 4 more in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 23 hours · 2026-10-03 02:00 UTC
66%
57–75%
Geopolitical: 80% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 72+) on 3 separate days within 815 km of Switzerland (nationwide), France (nationwide) and 4 more in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-02 02:00 UTC
80%
71–89%
Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 344 km of Sudan (nationwide) in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 23 hours · 2026-10-03 02:00 UTC
67%
58–77%
Economic: 66% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 2.0 standard deviations within 68 km of Namibia (nationwide) in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 23 hours · 2026-10-03 02:00 UTC
66%
56–76%
Economic: 64% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 2.5 standard deviations on 2 separate days within 211 km of Guam, United States; Northern Mariana Islands, United States and 2 more in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-11-01 02:00 UTC
64%
56–72%
Atmospheric: 72% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 2 separate days within 665 km of Minnesota, North Dakota and 2 more, United States in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-11-01 02:00 UTC
72%
64–80%
Economic: 66% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 2.0 standard deviations within 50 km of Somalia (nationwide) in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 23 hours · 2026-10-03 02:00 UTC
66%
56–76%
Geopolitical: 69% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 65+) on 2 separate days within 50 km of Somalia (nationwide) in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-11-01 02:00 UTC
69%
59–79%
Geopolitical: 66% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 60+) within 344 km of Sudan (nationwide) in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-09 02:00 UTC
66%
56–76%
Economic: 62% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 2.2 standard deviations within 68 km of Namibia (nationwide) in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-09 02:00 UTC
62%
52–72%
Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 819 km of Haiti (nationwide); Jamaica (nationwide) and 2 more in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-02 02:00 UTC
84%
75–93%
Atmospheric: 69% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 665 km of Minnesota, North Dakota and 2 more, United States in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 23 hours · 2026-10-03 02:00 UTC
69%
61–77%
Economic: 64% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 2.5 standard deviations on 2 separate days within 68 km of Namibia (nationwide) in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-11-01 02:00 UTC
64%
54–74%
Economic: 66% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 2.0 standard deviations within 348 km of Puerto Rico, United States and Haiti (nationwide) in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 21 hours · 2026-10-03 00:00 UTC
66%
56–75%
Economic: 64% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 2.5 standard deviations on 2 separate days within 503 km of Azerbaijan (nationwide), Armenia (nationwide) and 2 more in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-11-01 00:00 UTC
64%
55–73%
Economic: 64% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 2.5 standard deviations on 2 separate days within 709 km of Kosovo (nationwide), RB (nationwide) and 4 more in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-11-01 00:00 UTC
64%
55–73%
Geopolitical: 69% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 65+) on 2 separate days within 589 km of Egypt (nationwide), Israel (nationwide) and 1 more in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-11-01 00:00 UTC
69%
61–78%
Atmospheric: 69% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 50 km of California, United States in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 21 hours · 2026-10-03 00:00 UTC
69%
60–78%
Geopolitical: 80% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 72+) on 3 separate days within 589 km of Egypt (nationwide), Israel (nationwide) and 1 more in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-02 00:00 UTC
80%
72–89%
Geopolitical: 66% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 60+) within 589 km of Egypt (nationwide), Israel (nationwide) and 1 more in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-09 00:00 UTC
66%
57–75%
Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 589 km of Egypt (nationwide), Israel (nationwide) and 1 more in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 21 hours · 2026-10-03 00:00 UTC
67%
59–76%
Economic: 74% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 3.0 standard deviations on 3 separate days within 665 km of Minnesota, North Dakota and 2 more, United States in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-02 00:00 UTC
74%
66–82%
Economic: 74% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 3.0 standard deviations on 3 separate days within 50 km of California, United States in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-02 00:00 UTC
74%
66–83%
Atmospheric: 68% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 348 km of Puerto Rico, United States and Haiti (nationwide) in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-09 00:00 UTC
68%
59–77%
Economic: 62% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 2.2 standard deviations within 503 km of Azerbaijan (nationwide), Armenia (nationwide) and 2 more in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-09 00:00 UTC
62%
53–71%
Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.