Accuracy scorecard
Computed in SQL and TypeScript from resolved predictions. No language model touches these numbers.
Scored cohort: outlooks published by model tremor-deterministic-0.2.0 and later. Earlier long-horizon outlooks used a rule that could not be missed, so their perfect record measured the rule rather than the forecaster; they remain in the Signal Ledger with their original wording and resolution, and are excluded here rather than regraded. Metrics stay marked provisional until the new cohort is large enough.
Resolved
0
provisional sample
Brier score
—
lower is better
Hit rate
—
above 50% forecasts
Mean lead time
—
No resolved predictions yet.
Computed 2026-10-01 00:15 UTC.
Reliability
Forecast probability against observed frequency. A well-calibrated forecaster tracks the diagonal.
Not enough resolved predictions to plot a reliability curve.
By domain
| Domain | n | Brier | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitical | 0 | — | — |
| Space weather | 0 | — | — |
| Economic | 0 | — | — |
| Seismic | 0 | — | — |
| Atmospheric | 0 | — | — |
By horizon
| Horizon | n | Brier | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 hours | 0 | — | — |
| 30 days | 0 | — | — |
| 12 months | 0 | — | — |
| 7 days | 0 | — | — |
Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.