Global Tremor Score
critical422 signals ingested in the last 24 hours across 3 active domains. Highest convergence: Sudan (nationwide) at 100/100.
Clusters 24h
6
Open outlooks
0
Brier score
—
n=0
Convergence
Where signals from independent domains overlap in space and time.
Sudan (nationwide)
6 signals · formed 18 minutes ago
100
criticalSudan (nationwide) is scoring 100/100. 2 domains overlap here (economic, geopolitical), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Sudan: coverage of coercive events 3.333σ above its 14-day baseline across 25 articles, led by Sudan (military); Sudan: coverage of coercive events 6.838σ above its 14-day baseline across 47 articles, led by Sudan; Sudan: coverage of coercive events 4.282σ above its 14-day baseline across 30 articles, led by Civilian (civilians); Sudan: coverage of coercive events 2.773σ above its 14-day baseline across 21 articles, led by Sudan.
Somalia (nationwide)
3 signals · formed 18 minutes ago
100
criticalSomalia (nationwide) is scoring 100/100. 2 domains overlap here (economic, geopolitical), applying a 1.10× convergence multiplier to a base score of 91.23. Contributing signals: Somalia: coverage of coercive events 27.451σ above its 14-day baseline across 160 articles, led by Minneapolis; Somalia: coverage of coercive events 4.49σ above its 14-day baseline across 27 articles, led by Minneapolis; 10y-2y curve at 0.46 (-0.476σ vs trailing year).
Minnesota, North Dakota and 2 more, United States
5 signals · formed 18 minutes ago
100
criticalMinnesota, North Dakota and 2 more, United States is scoring 100/100. 2 domains overlap here (atmospheric, economic), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Freeze Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Minnesota; Freeze Warning — 1 active NWS alert in North Dakota; Flood Watch — 1 active NWS alert in Wisconsin; Flood Watch — 1 active NWS alert in Illinois.
Namibia (nationwide)
3 signals · formed 18 minutes ago
100
criticalNamibia (nationwide) is scoring 100/100. 2 domains overlap here (economic, geopolitical), applying a 1.23× convergence multiplier to a base score of 81.37. Contributing signals: Namibia: coverage of coercive events 5.866σ above its 14-day baseline across 30 articles, led by Namibia; Namibia: coverage of coercive events 3.873σ above its 14-day baseline across 20 articles, led by Government (government); 10y-2y curve at 0.46 (-0.476σ vs trailing year).
Haiti (nationwide); Jamaica (nationwide) and 2 more
7 signals · formed 18 minutes ago
100
criticalHaiti (nationwide); Jamaica (nationwide) and 2 more is scoring 100/100. 3 domains overlap here (atmospheric, economic, geopolitical), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Haiti: coverage of coercive events 4.084σ above its 14-day baseline across 24 articles, led by Deputies (police); Jamaica: coverage of coercive events 6.148σ above its 14-day baseline across 32 articles, led by Jamaica; Flash Flood Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Puerto Rico; Jamaica: coverage of coercive events 5.754σ above its 14-day baseline across 30 articles, led by Constable (police).
Switzerland (nationwide), France (nationwide) and 4 more
15 signals · formed 18 minutes ago
100
criticalSwitzerland (nationwide), France (nationwide) and 4 more is scoring 100/100. 2 domains overlap here (economic, geopolitical), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Switzerland: coverage of coercive events 10.077σ above its 14-day baseline across 52 articles, led by Switzerland; France: coverage of coercive events 2.505σ above its 14-day baseline across 56 articles, led by France (government); France: coverage of coercive events 3.479σ above its 14-day baseline across 73 articles, led by French (police); France: coverage of coercive events 1.703σ above its 14-day baseline across 41 articles, led by France (education).
Open outlooks
Probabilistic, resolvable and permanently logged the moment they are published.
No outlook windows are currently open.
Latest signals
- 32
Extreme heat forecast at Delhi, India — 35.5 °C
- 44
Extreme heat forecast at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 38 °C
- 32
Extreme heat forecast at Delhi, India — 35.5 °C
- 45
Extreme heat forecast at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 38.3 °C
- 56
Flood Watch — 1 active NWS alert in Iowa
- 64
Extreme Heat Watch — 2 active NWS alerts in California
- 67
Extreme Heat Warning — 2 active NWS alerts in California
- 55
Extreme heat forecast at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 40.4 °C
Calibration
No resolved predictions yet.
Open the scorecardDaily Brief
Latest brief published 2026-09-01 06:00 UTC with a score of 100/100.
Read 2026-09-01Get the Daily Brief
One email each morning: global score, convergences, new outlooks and what resolved.