Daily Brief · 2026-09-01

TREMOR DAILY BRIEF — 2026-09-01

Global Tremor Score: 100/100 (critical). 520 signals ingested in the last 24 hours.

WHERE SIGNALS ARE CONVERGING

• Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Geopolitical (base 100).

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia is scoring 100/100. 2 domains overlap here (atmospheric, geopolitical), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Extreme heat forecast at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 44.9 °C; Extreme heat forecast at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 43.5 °C; Saudi Arabia: coverage of coercive events 3.824σ above its 14-day baseline across 22 articles, led by Riyadh.

• Idaho, Oregon and 1 more, United States — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Space weather (base 100).

Idaho, Oregon and 1 more, United States is scoring 100/100. 2 domains overlap here (atmospheric, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Red Flag Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Idaho; Red Flag Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Oregon; High Wind Watch — 1 active NWS alert in Montana; Fire Weather Watch — 1 active NWS alert in Montana.

• 17.3, -124.7; 17.2, -124.0 and 1 more — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Space weather (base 100).

17.3, -124.7; 17.2, -124.0 and 1 more is scoring 100/100. 2 domains overlap here (atmospheric, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Hurricane Karina; CME at 841 km/s left the Sun at 2026-08-31T11:25:00.000Z; CME at 550 km/s left the Sun at 2026-08-31T11:48:00.000Z.

• Baghdad, Iraq and Tehran, Iran — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Geopolitical (base 100).

Baghdad, Iraq and Tehran, Iran is scoring 100/100. 2 domains overlap here (atmospheric, geopolitical), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Extreme heat forecast at Baghdad, Iraq — 41.9 °C; Extreme heat forecast at Baghdad, Iraq — 39.4 °C; Extreme heat forecast at Baghdad, Iraq — 38.5 °C; Extreme heat forecast at Tehran, Iran — 37.8 °C.

• 17.2, -124.0 and 17.1, -123.3 — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Space weather (base 92.35).

17.2, -124.0 and 17.1, -123.3 is scoring 100/100. 2 domains overlap here (atmospheric, space weather), applying a 1.08× convergence multiplier to a base score of 92.35. Contributing signals: Hurricane Karina; CME at 841 km/s left the Sun at 2026-08-31T11:25:00.000Z.

OUTLOOKS OPENED

• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 473 km of Switzerland (nationwide); Germany (nationwide) and 2 more in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-31 10:03 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 498 km of Germany (nationwide); Rome, Italy and 1 more in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-31 12:01 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 882 km of California, United States; Arizona, United States and 3 more in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-31 16:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 665 km of Indiana, Kentucky and 2 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-31 22:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 444 km of Atlantic offshore waters, United States; Pennsylvania, United States and 1 more in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-31 10:03 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 668 km of Utah, Nevada and 4 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-31 20:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 50 km of Oregon, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-31 06:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 669 km of Kansas, Colorado and 2 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-31 12:01 UTC.

WHAT RESOLVED

• No prediction windows closed in this period.

CALIBRATION

• Resolved predictions: 0. Brier score: n/a. Hit rate above 50% confidence: n/a.
• No resolved predictions yet.

SOURCE HEALTH

• 7 healthy, 1 degraded, 0 down.

Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings. For official alerts always follow your national agency (USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC, or your local civil-protection authority).