Signal Ledger
Nothing is edited or deleted after publication. Resolutions are appended with their evidence.
Geopolitical: 66% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 60+) within 68 km of Namibia (nationwide) in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-09 02:00 UTC
66%
56–76%
Geopolitical: 69% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 65+) on 2 separate days within 819 km of Haiti (nationwide); Jamaica (nationwide) and 2 more in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-11-01 02:00 UTC
69%
60–78%
Geopolitical: 69% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 65+) on 2 separate days within 50 km of Somalia (nationwide) in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-11-01 02:00 UTC
69%
59–79%
Geopolitical: 80% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 72+) on 3 separate days within 815 km of Switzerland (nationwide), France (nationwide) and 4 more in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-02 02:00 UTC
80%
71–89%
Geopolitical: 69% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 65+) on 2 separate days within 68 km of Namibia (nationwide) in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-11-01 02:00 UTC
69%
59–79%
Geopolitical: 66% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 60+) within 819 km of Haiti (nationwide); Jamaica (nationwide) and 2 more in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-09 02:00 UTC
66%
57–75%
Geopolitical: 80% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 72+) on 3 separate days within 50 km of Somalia (nationwide) in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-02 02:00 UTC
80%
70–90%
Geopolitical: 80% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 72+) on 3 separate days within 344 km of Sudan (nationwide) in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-02 02:00 UTC
80%
71–90%
Geopolitical: 66% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 60+) within 815 km of Switzerland (nationwide), France (nationwide) and 4 more in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-09 02:00 UTC
66%
57–75%
Geopolitical: 69% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 65+) on 2 separate days within 815 km of Switzerland (nationwide), France (nationwide) and 4 more in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-11-01 02:00 UTC
69%
60–78%
Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 815 km of Switzerland (nationwide), France (nationwide) and 4 more in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 22 hours · 2026-10-03 02:00 UTC
67%
59–76%
Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 819 km of Haiti (nationwide); Jamaica (nationwide) and 2 more in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 22 hours · 2026-10-03 02:00 UTC
67%
58–76%
Geopolitical: 66% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 60+) within 50 km of Somalia (nationwide) in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-09 02:00 UTC
66%
56–76%
Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 68 km of Namibia (nationwide) in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 22 hours · 2026-10-03 02:00 UTC
67%
57–77%
Geopolitical: 80% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 72+) on 3 separate days within 819 km of Haiti (nationwide); Jamaica (nationwide) and 2 more in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-02 02:00 UTC
80%
71–89%
Geopolitical: 66% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 60+) within 344 km of Sudan (nationwide) in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-09 02:00 UTC
66%
56–76%
Geopolitical: 69% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 65+) on 2 separate days within 344 km of Sudan (nationwide) in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-11-01 02:00 UTC
69%
60–79%
Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 50 km of Somalia (nationwide) in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 22 hours · 2026-10-03 02:00 UTC
67%
57–77%
Geopolitical: 80% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 72+) on 3 separate days within 68 km of Namibia (nationwide) in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-02 02:00 UTC
80%
70–90%
Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 344 km of Sudan (nationwide) in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 22 hours · 2026-10-03 02:00 UTC
67%
58–77%
Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 709 km of Kosovo (nationwide), RB (nationwide) and 4 more in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 20 hours · 2026-10-03 00:00 UTC
67%
58–76%
Geopolitical: 66% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 60+) within 797 km of Switzerland (nationwide), France (nationwide) and 4 more in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-09 00:00 UTC
66%
57–75%
Geopolitical: 66% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 60+) within 502 km of Canada (nationwide) in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-09 00:00 UTC
66%
56–76%
Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 589 km of Egypt (nationwide), Israel (nationwide) and 1 more in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 20 hours · 2026-10-03 00:00 UTC
67%
59–76%
Geopolitical: 66% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 60+) within 589 km of Egypt (nationwide), Israel (nationwide) and 1 more in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-09 00:00 UTC
66%
57–75%
Geopolitical: 66% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 60+) within 709 km of Kosovo (nationwide), RB (nationwide) and 4 more in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-09 00:00 UTC
66%
57–75%
Geopolitical: 69% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 65+) on 2 separate days within 348 km of Puerto Rico, United States and Haiti (nationwide) in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-11-01 00:00 UTC
69%
60–78%
Geopolitical: 69% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 65+) on 2 separate days within 589 km of Egypt (nationwide), Israel (nationwide) and 1 more in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-11-01 00:00 UTC
69%
61–78%
Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 503 km of Azerbaijan (nationwide), Armenia (nationwide) and 2 more in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 20 hours · 2026-10-03 00:00 UTC
67%
58–76%
Geopolitical: 80% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 72+) on 3 separate days within 589 km of Egypt (nationwide), Israel (nationwide) and 1 more in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-02 00:00 UTC
80%
72–89%
Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 348 km of Puerto Rico, United States and Haiti (nationwide) in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 20 hours · 2026-10-03 00:00 UTC
67%
58–77%
Geopolitical: 66% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 60+) within 503 km of Azerbaijan (nationwide), Armenia (nationwide) and 2 more in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-09 00:00 UTC
66%
57–75%
Geopolitical: 69% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 65+) on 2 separate days within 503 km of Azerbaijan (nationwide), Armenia (nationwide) and 2 more in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-11-01 00:00 UTC
69%
60–78%
Geopolitical: 80% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 72+) on 3 separate days within 503 km of Azerbaijan (nationwide), Armenia (nationwide) and 2 more in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-02 00:00 UTC
80%
71–89%
Geopolitical: 69% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 65+) on 2 separate days within 502 km of Canada (nationwide) in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-11-01 00:00 UTC
69%
59–79%
Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 797 km of Switzerland (nationwide), France (nationwide) and 4 more in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 20 hours · 2026-10-03 00:00 UTC
67%
58–76%
Geopolitical: 69% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 65+) on 2 separate days within 709 km of Kosovo (nationwide), RB (nationwide) and 4 more in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-11-01 00:00 UTC
69%
60–78%
Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 502 km of Canada (nationwide) in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 20 hours · 2026-10-03 00:00 UTC
67%
58–77%
Geopolitical: 80% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 72+) on 3 separate days within 348 km of Puerto Rico, United States and Haiti (nationwide) in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-02 00:00 UTC
80%
71–89%
Geopolitical: 69% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 65+) on 2 separate days within 797 km of Switzerland (nationwide), France (nationwide) and 4 more in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-11-01 00:00 UTC
69%
60–78%
Geopolitical: 66% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 60+) within 348 km of Puerto Rico, United States and Haiti (nationwide) in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-09 00:00 UTC
66%
57–75%
Geopolitical: 80% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 72+) on 3 separate days within 797 km of Switzerland (nationwide), France (nationwide) and 4 more in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-02 00:00 UTC
80%
71–89%
Geopolitical: 80% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 72+) on 3 separate days within 502 km of Canada (nationwide) in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-02 00:00 UTC
80%
70–90%
Geopolitical: 80% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 72+) on 3 separate days within 709 km of Kosovo (nationwide), RB (nationwide) and 4 more in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-02 00:00 UTC
80%
71–89%
Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 643 km of Egypt (nationwide), West Bank (nationwide) and 5 more in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 18 hours · 2026-10-02 22:00 UTC
67%
59–76%
Geopolitical: 69% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 65+) on 2 separate days within 865 km of France (nationwide), Jersey (nationwide) and 5 more in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-10-31 22:00 UTC
69%
61–78%
Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 73 km of Baghdad, Iraq in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 18 hours · 2026-10-02 22:00 UTC
67%
58–77%
Geopolitical: 80% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 72+) on 3 separate days within 697 km of Sudan (nationwide) and Ethiopia (nationwide) in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-01 22:00 UTC
80%
70–90%
Geopolitical: 69% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 65+) on 2 separate days within 697 km of Sudan (nationwide) and Ethiopia (nationwide) in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-10-31 22:00 UTC
69%
59–79%
Geopolitical: 69% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 65+) on 2 separate days within 566 km of Morocco (nationwide) and Spain (nationwide) in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-10-31 22:00 UTC
69%
59–79%
Geopolitical: 80% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 72+) on 3 separate days within 573 km of Myanmar (Burma) (nationwide) and Dhaka, Bangladesh in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-01 22:00 UTC
80%
70–90%
Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 865 km of France (nationwide), Jersey (nationwide) and 5 more in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 18 hours · 2026-10-02 22:00 UTC
67%
59–76%
Geopolitical: 66% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 60+) within 697 km of Sudan (nationwide) and Ethiopia (nationwide) in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-08 22:00 UTC
66%
56–76%
Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 697 km of Sudan (nationwide) and Ethiopia (nationwide) in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 18 hours · 2026-10-02 22:00 UTC
67%
57–77%
Geopolitical: 69% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 65+) on 2 separate days within 73 km of Baghdad, Iraq in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-10-31 22:00 UTC
69%
59–79%
Geopolitical: 80% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 72+) on 3 separate days within 73 km of Baghdad, Iraq in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-01 22:00 UTC
80%
70–90%
Geopolitical: 69% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 65+) on 2 separate days within 446 km of Indiana, Illinois and 1 more, United States in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-10-31 22:00 UTC
69%
60–78%
Geopolitical: 80% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 72+) on 3 separate days within 566 km of Morocco (nationwide) and Spain (nationwide) in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-01 22:00 UTC
80%
70–90%
Geopolitical: 69% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 65+) on 2 separate days within 573 km of Myanmar (Burma) (nationwide) and Dhaka, Bangladesh in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-10-31 22:00 UTC
69%
59–79%
Geopolitical: 66% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 60+) within 865 km of France (nationwide), Jersey (nationwide) and 5 more in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-08 22:00 UTC
66%
57–75%
Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 566 km of Morocco (nationwide) and Spain (nationwide) in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 18 hours · 2026-10-02 22:00 UTC
67%
57–77%
Geopolitical: 66% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 60+) within 566 km of Morocco (nationwide) and Spain (nationwide) in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-08 22:00 UTC
66%
56–76%
Geopolitical: 66% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 60+) within 573 km of Myanmar (Burma) (nationwide) and Dhaka, Bangladesh in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-08 22:00 UTC
66%
56–76%
Geopolitical: 80% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 72+) on 3 separate days within 437 km of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-01 22:00 UTC
80%
71–89%
Geopolitical: 80% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 72+) on 3 separate days within 643 km of Egypt (nationwide), West Bank (nationwide) and 5 more in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-01 22:00 UTC
80%
72–89%
Geopolitical: 69% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 65+) on 2 separate days within 437 km of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-10-31 22:00 UTC
69%
60–78%
Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 446 km of Indiana, Illinois and 1 more, United States in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 18 hours · 2026-10-02 22:00 UTC
67%
59–76%
Geopolitical: 80% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 72+) on 3 separate days within 865 km of France (nationwide), Jersey (nationwide) and 5 more in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-01 22:00 UTC
80%
72–89%
Geopolitical: 66% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 60+) within 643 km of Egypt (nationwide), West Bank (nationwide) and 5 more in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-08 22:00 UTC
66%
57–75%
Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 437 km of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 18 hours · 2026-10-02 22:00 UTC
67%
58–77%
Geopolitical: 66% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 60+) within 73 km of Baghdad, Iraq in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-08 22:00 UTC
66%
56–76%
Geopolitical: 69% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 65+) on 2 separate days within 643 km of Egypt (nationwide), West Bank (nationwide) and 5 more in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-10-31 22:00 UTC
69%
61–78%
Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 573 km of Myanmar (Burma) (nationwide) and Dhaka, Bangladesh in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 18 hours · 2026-10-02 22:00 UTC
67%
58–77%
Geopolitical: 66% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 60+) within 437 km of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-08 22:00 UTC
66%
57–75%
Geopolitical: 80% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 72+) on 3 separate days within 446 km of Indiana, Illinois and 1 more, United States in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 12 months · 2027-10-01 22:00 UTC
80%
71–89%
Geopolitical: 66% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 60+) within 446 km of Indiana, Illinois and 1 more, United States in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-08 22:00 UTC
66%
57–75%
Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 50 km of Jamaica (nationwide) in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 16 hours · 2026-10-02 20:00 UTC
67%
59–76%
Geopolitical: 66% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 60+) within 351 km of Atlantic coastal waters, United States; Gulf coastal waters, United States and 1 more in the next 7 days.
Window closes in 7 days · 2026-10-08 20:00 UTC
66%
58–74%
Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 351 km of Atlantic coastal waters, United States; Gulf coastal waters, United States and 1 more in the next 24 hours.
Window closes in 16 hours · 2026-10-02 20:00 UTC
67%
59–75%
Geopolitical: 69% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 65+) on 2 separate days within 351 km of Atlantic coastal waters, United States; Gulf coastal waters, United States and 1 more in the next 30 days.
Window closes in 30 days · 2026-10-31 20:00 UTC
69%
61–77%
Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.