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Live signal feed

Raw observations, scored deterministically. Nothing here is interpreted by a language model.

latest snapshot

  • 23

    United States: coverage of coercive events 0.074σ below its 14-day baseline across 215 articles, led by United States (civilians)

    GeopoliticalUnited States (nationwide)source
  • 29

    United Kingdom: coverage of coercive events 0.582σ above its 14-day baseline across 68 articles, led by United Kingdom (business)

    GeopoliticalUnited Kingdom (nationwide)source
  • 30

    Australia: coverage of coercive events 0.233σ above its 14-day baseline across 27 articles, led by Police (police)

    GeopoliticalAustralia (nationwide)source
  • 29

    Ukraine: coverage of coercive events 0.385σ above its 14-day baseline across 22 articles, led by Ukraine (government)

    GeopoliticalUkraine (nationwide)source
  • 47

    Brazil: coverage of coercive events 2.689σ above its 14-day baseline across 22 articles, led by Brazil

    GeopoliticalBrazil (nationwide)source
  • 62

    Cuba: coverage of coercive events 8.279σ above its 14-day baseline across 69 articles, led by Cuba (political opposition)

    GeopoliticalCuba (nationwide)source
  • 78

    Indonesia: coverage of coercive events 5.291σ above its 14-day baseline across 40 articles, led by Indonesia

    GeopoliticalIndonesia (nationwide)source
  • 29

    Australia: coverage of coercive events 0.466σ above its 14-day baseline across 34 articles, led by Australia

    GeopoliticalAustralia (nationwide)source
  • 21

    India: coverage of coercive events 0.373σ below its 14-day baseline across 28 articles, led by Delhi

    GeopoliticalIndia (nationwide)source
  • 31

    China: coverage of coercive events 0.528σ above its 14-day baseline across 22 articles, led by Israel (political opposition)

    GeopoliticalChina (nationwide)source
  • 27

    United States: coverage of coercive events 0.248σ above its 14-day baseline across 278 articles, led by United States (police)

    GeopoliticalUnited States (nationwide)source
  • 19

    Israel: coverage of coercive events 0.279σ below its 14-day baseline across 26 articles, led by Gaza

    GeopoliticalIsrael (nationwide)source
  • 51

    Thailand: coverage of coercive events 2.706σ above its 14-day baseline across 20 articles, led by Aircraft Carrier (military)

    GeopoliticalThailand (nationwide)source
  • 59

    France: coverage of coercive events 2.505σ above its 14-day baseline across 56 articles, led by France (government)

    GeopoliticalFrance (nationwide)source
  • 60

    Tonga: coverage of coercive events 9.582σ above its 14-day baseline across 48 articles, led by Tonga (police)

    GeopoliticalTonga (nationwide)source
  • 59

    Kuwait: coverage of coercive events 8.124σ above its 14-day baseline across 41 articles, led by Kuwait (judiciary)

    GeopoliticalKuwait (nationwide)source
  • 21

    Australia: coverage of coercive events 0.632σ above its 14-day baseline across 39 articles, led by Australia

    GeopoliticalAustralia (nationwide)source
  • 27

    United States: coverage of coercive events 0.532σ above its 14-day baseline across 333 articles, led by United States (government)

    GeopoliticalUnited States (nationwide)source
  • 38

    Israel: coverage of coercive events 1.459σ above its 14-day baseline across 91 articles, led by Israel (police)

    GeopoliticalIsrael (nationwide)source
  • 23

    United Kingdom: coverage of coercive events 0.675σ above its 14-day baseline across 72 articles, led by British

    GeopoliticalUnited Kingdom (nationwide)source
  • 80

    Spain: coverage of coercive events 4.112σ above its 14-day baseline across 42 articles, led by Police (police)

    GeopoliticalSpain (nationwide)source
  • 39

    Ukraine: coverage of coercive events 1.33σ above its 14-day baseline across 41 articles, led by Ukrainian

    GeopoliticalUkraine (nationwide)source
  • 45

    Pakistan: coverage of coercive events 0.667σ above its 14-day baseline across 35 articles, led by Civilian (civilians)

    GeopoliticalPakistan (nationwide)source
  • 65

    Jamaica: coverage of coercive events 6.148σ above its 14-day baseline across 32 articles, led by Jamaica

    GeopoliticalJamaica (nationwide)source
  • 27

    Russia: coverage of coercive events 0.099σ above its 14-day baseline across 27 articles, led by Servicemen (military)

    GeopoliticalRussia (nationwide)source
  • 30

    Saudi Arabia: coverage of coercive events 0.93σ above its 14-day baseline across 26 articles, led by Saudi Arabia (business)

    GeopoliticalSaudi Arabia (nationwide)source
  • 44

    India: coverage of coercive events 2.589σ above its 14-day baseline across 152 articles, led by Supreme Court (judiciary)

    GeopoliticalIndia (nationwide)source
  • 67

    Afghanistan: coverage of coercive events 3.527σ above its 14-day baseline across 47 articles, led by Civilian (civilians)

    GeopoliticalAfghanistan (nationwide)source
  • 56

    Ethiopia: coverage of coercive events 3.588σ above its 14-day baseline across 46 articles, led by Ethiopia (government)

    GeopoliticalEthiopia (nationwide)source
  • 31

    Pakistan: coverage of coercive events 0.669σ above its 14-day baseline across 35 articles, led by Militant (unidentified armed force)

    GeopoliticalPakistan (nationwide)source
  • 70

    Haiti: coverage of coercive events 4.084σ above its 14-day baseline across 24 articles, led by Deputies (police)

    GeopoliticalHaiti (nationwide)source
  • 65

    United States: coverage of coercive events 10.348σ above its 14-day baseline across 2123 articles, led by United States (legislature)

    GeopoliticalUnited States (nationwide)source
  • 61

    Russia: coverage of coercive events 9.138σ above its 14-day baseline across 287 articles, led by Russia

    GeopoliticalRussia (nationwide)source
  • 65

    Ireland: coverage of coercive events 21.287σ above its 14-day baseline across 208 articles, led by Ireland

    GeopoliticalIreland (nationwide)source
  • 63

    Iran: coverage of coercive events 7.137σ above its 14-day baseline across 196 articles, led by Iran (government)

    GeopoliticalIran (nationwide)source
  • 70

    Somalia: coverage of coercive events 27.451σ above its 14-day baseline across 160 articles, led by Minneapolis

    GeopoliticalSomalia (nationwide)source
  • 52

    Nigeria: coverage of coercive events 2.252σ above its 14-day baseline across 93 articles, led by Nigeria

    GeopoliticalNigeria (nationwide)source
  • 55

    Ukraine: coverage of coercive events 2.94σ above its 14-day baseline across 73 articles, led by Nato (IGO)

    GeopoliticalUkraine (nationwide)source
  • 28

    Canada: coverage of coercive events 1.28σ above its 14-day baseline across 53 articles, led by Physician (health)

    GeopoliticalCanada (nationwide)source
  • 68

    Mexico: coverage of coercive events 4.909σ above its 14-day baseline across 48 articles, led by Mexico (criminal group)

    GeopoliticalMexico (nationwide)source
  • 15

    United Kingdom: coverage of coercive events 0.055σ above its 14-day baseline across 45 articles, led by United Kingdom

    GeopoliticalUnited Kingdom (nationwide)source
  • 55

    France: coverage of coercive events 1.703σ above its 14-day baseline across 41 articles, led by France (education)

    GeopoliticalFrance (nationwide)source
  • 75

    New Zealand: coverage of coercive events 4.374σ above its 14-day baseline across 38 articles, led by Police (police)

    GeopoliticalNew Zealand (nationwide)source
  • 32

    Jordan: coverage of coercive events 1.723σ above its 14-day baseline across 25 articles, led by Champagne

    GeopoliticalJordan (nationwide)source
  • 42

    Cuba: coverage of coercive events 2.696σ above its 14-day baseline across 24 articles, led by Cuban

    GeopoliticalCuba (nationwide)source
  • 20

    Israel: coverage of coercive events 0.33σ below its 14-day baseline across 24 articles, led by Israel (government)

    GeopoliticalIsrael (nationwide)source
  • 37

    Iraq: coverage of coercive events 2.236σ above its 14-day baseline across 20 articles, led by Iraq

    GeopoliticalIraq (nationwide)source
  • 20

    Israel: coverage of coercive events 0.205σ above its 14-day baseline across 44 articles, led by Deputy (police)

    GeopoliticalIsrael (nationwide)source
  • 69

    Kosovo: coverage of coercive events 5.137σ above its 14-day baseline across 26 articles, led by Criminal (criminal group)

    GeopoliticalKosovo (nationwide)source
  • 59

    RB: coverage of coercive events 3.135σ above its 14-day baseline across 16 articles, led by Community (civilians)

    GeopoliticalRB (nationwide)source
  • 27

    United States: coverage of coercive events 0.748σ above its 14-day baseline across 365 articles, led by United States (government)

    GeopoliticalUnited States (nationwide)source
  • 60

    Ethiopia: coverage of coercive events 8.419σ above its 14-day baseline across 97 articles, led by Ethiopia

    GeopoliticalEthiopia (nationwide)source
  • 66

    Egypt: coverage of coercive events 8.386σ above its 14-day baseline across 62 articles, led by Egypt (government)

    GeopoliticalEgypt (nationwide)source
  • 71

    Switzerland: coverage of coercive events 10.077σ above its 14-day baseline across 52 articles, led by Switzerland

    GeopoliticalSwitzerland (nationwide)source
  • 36

    Australia: coverage of coercive events 0.201σ above its 14-day baseline across 26 articles, led by Australia

    GeopoliticalAustralia (nationwide)source
  • 73

    Sudan: coverage of coercive events 3.333σ above its 14-day baseline across 25 articles, led by Sudan (military)

    GeopoliticalSudan (nationwide)source
  • 50

    Eritrea: coverage of coercive events 2.448σ above its 14-day baseline across 13 articles, led by Eritrea (government)

    GeopoliticalEritrea (nationwide)source
  • 28

    United States: coverage of coercive events 0.623σ above its 14-day baseline across 342 articles, led by United States (government)

    GeopoliticalUnited States (nationwide)source
  • 31

    United Kingdom: coverage of coercive events 0.583σ above its 14-day baseline across 68 articles, led by Police (police)

    GeopoliticalUnited Kingdom (nationwide)source
  • 36

    Canada: coverage of coercive events 1.057σ above its 14-day baseline across 47 articles, led by Police (police)

    GeopoliticalCanada (nationwide)source
  • 20

    Israel: coverage of coercive events 0.099σ above its 14-day baseline across 40 articles, led by Israel (intelligence services)

    GeopoliticalIsrael (nationwide)source
  • 32

    Iran: coverage of coercive events 0.708σ above its 14-day baseline across 40 articles, led by Iran

    GeopoliticalIran (nationwide)source
  • 19

    Australia: coverage of coercive events 0.435σ above its 14-day baseline across 33 articles, led by Police (police)

    GeopoliticalAustralia (nationwide)source
  • 16

    India: coverage of coercive events 0.374σ below its 14-day baseline across 28 articles, led by Government (government)

    GeopoliticalIndia (nationwide)source
  • 45

    Ireland: coverage of coercive events 2.071σ above its 14-day baseline across 25 articles, led by Irish

    GeopoliticalIreland (nationwide)source
  • 55

    Ethiopia: coverage of coercive events 1.737σ above its 14-day baseline across 23 articles, led by Ethiopia (government)

    GeopoliticalEthiopia (nationwide)source
  • 52

    Oman: coverage of coercive events 2.758σ above its 14-day baseline across 15 articles, led by President (government)

    GeopoliticalOman (nationwide)source
  • 49

    Haiti: coverage of coercive events 2.095σ above its 14-day baseline across 13 articles, led by Haiti

    GeopoliticalHaiti (nationwide)source
  • 43

    India: coverage of coercive events 2.122σ above its 14-day baseline across 132 articles, led by Student (education)

    GeopoliticalIndia (nationwide)source
  • 67

    Canada: coverage of coercive events 3.847σ above its 14-day baseline across 125 articles, led by Police (police)

    GeopoliticalCanada (nationwide)source
  • 24

    Pakistan: coverage of coercive events 0.865σ above its 14-day baseline across 40 articles, led by The Opposition (political opposition)

    GeopoliticalPakistan (nationwide)source
  • 17

    United Kingdom: coverage of coercive events 0.152σ below its 14-day baseline across 36 articles, led by United Kingdom

    GeopoliticalUnited Kingdom (nationwide)source
  • 58

    Iraq: coverage of coercive events 3.316σ above its 14-day baseline across 28 articles, led by Deputy (police)

    GeopoliticalIraq (nationwide)source
  • 65

    Morocco: coverage of coercive events 4.043σ above its 14-day baseline across 21 articles, led by Moroccan (judiciary)

    GeopoliticalMorocco (nationwide)source
  • 54

    Sudan: coverage of coercive events 2.773σ above its 14-day baseline across 21 articles, led by Sudan

    GeopoliticalSudan (nationwide)source
  • 36

    United States: coverage of coercive events 1.279σ above its 14-day baseline across 463 articles, led by United States (police)

    GeopoliticalUnited States (nationwide)source
  • 61

    Nigeria: coverage of coercive events 2.59σ above its 14-day baseline across 103 articles, led by Nigeria

    GeopoliticalNigeria (nationwide)source
  • 35

    Russia: coverage of coercive events 0.662σ above its 14-day baseline across 43 articles, led by Deputy (police)

    GeopoliticalRussia (nationwide)source
  • 27

    Ukraine: coverage of coercive events 0.488σ above its 14-day baseline across 24 articles, led by Ukraine

    GeopoliticalUkraine (nationwide)source
  • 49

    Cuba: coverage of coercive events 2.715σ above its 14-day baseline across 24 articles, led by The Un (IGO)

    GeopoliticalCuba (nationwide)source

Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.