Atmospheric7 daysopen
Atmospheric: 68% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 211 km of Guam, United States; Northern Mariana Islands, United States and 2 more in the next 7 days.
Probability
68%
Interval
60–76%
Opens
2026-10-02 02:00 UTC
Closes
2026-10-09 02:00 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- atmospheric
- metric
- severity
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the atmospheric domain occur between 2026-10-02T02:00:34.182Z and 2026-10-09T02:00:34.182Z, within 211 km of 15.0797, 145.2955, meeting or exceeding 68. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 68
- min event count
- 1
Outcome
The window is still open. Tremor grades this automatically against independently ingested outcome events once it closes — the probability above is never revised.
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.