Space weather30 daysopen
Space weather: 63% chance of geomagnetic activity reaching Kp 6 or higher on 2 separate days within 362 km of 75 km NE of Tadine, New Caledonia; 77 km ENE of Tadine, New Caledonia and 1 more in the next 30 days.
Probability
63%
Interval
55–70%
Opens
2026-09-30 06:00 UTC
Closes
2026-10-30 06:00 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- spaceweather
- metric
- kp
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when outcome events on 2 separate days in the spaceweather domain occur between 2026-09-30T06:00:34.004Z and 2026-10-30T06:00:34.004Z, within 362 km of -19.1459, 167.8664, meeting or exceeding 6. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 6
- min event count
- 2
Outcome
The window is still open. Tremor grades this automatically against independently ingested outcome events once it closes — the probability above is never revised.
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.