Seismic24 hourspending
Seismic: 67% chance of an M5.0+ earthquake within 447 km of North Macedonia (nationwide); 3 km W of Thívai, Greece and 1 more in the next 24 hours.
Probability
67%
Interval
58–76%
Opens
2026-09-30 12:00 UTC
Closes
2026-10-01 12:00 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- seismic
- metric
- magnitude
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the seismic domain occur between 2026-09-30T12:00:33.499Z and 2026-10-01T12:00:33.499Z, within 447 km of 39.5625, 24.0586, meeting or exceeding 5. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 5
- min event count
- 1
Outcome
The window is still open. Tremor grades this automatically against independently ingested outcome events once it closes — the probability above is never revised.
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.