Seismic7 daysopen
Seismic: 65% chance of an M5.5+ earthquake within 435 km of Tokyo and 12 km SSE of Hasaki, Japan in the next 7 days.
Probability
65%
Interval
56–74%
Opens
2026-10-01 12:00 UTC
Closes
2026-10-08 12:00 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- seismic
- metric
- magnitude
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the seismic domain occur between 2026-10-01T12:00:33.695Z and 2026-10-08T12:00:33.695Z, within 435 km of 37.1989, 140.1637, meeting or exceeding 5.5. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 5.5
- min event count
- 1
Outcome
The window is still open. Tremor grades this automatically against independently ingested outcome events once it closes — the probability above is never revised.
Was this useful?
Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.