Atmospheric30 daysopen
Atmospheric: 72% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 2 separate days within 437 km of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia in the next 30 days.
Probability
72%
Interval
63–81%
Opens
2026-10-01 22:00 UTC
Closes
2026-10-31 22:00 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- atmospheric
- metric
- severity
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when outcome events on 2 separate days in the atmospheric domain occur between 2026-10-01T22:00:33.539Z and 2026-10-31T22:00:33.539Z, within 437 km of 25.0695, 43.6827, meeting or exceeding 74. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 74
- min event count
- 2
Outcome
The window is still open. Tremor grades this automatically against independently ingested outcome events once it closes — the probability above is never revised.
Was this useful?
Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.