Economic30 daysopen
Economic: 64% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 2.5 standard deviations on 2 separate days within 68 km of Namibia (nationwide) in the next 30 days.
Probability
64%
Interval
54–74%
Opens
2026-10-02 02:00 UTC
Closes
2026-11-01 02:00 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- economic
- metric
- z_score
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when outcome events on 2 separate days in the economic domain occur between 2026-10-02T02:00:34.182Z and 2026-11-01T02:00:34.182Z, within 68 km of -21.7179, 17.5855, meeting or exceeding 2.5. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 2.5
- min event count
- 2
Outcome
The window is still open. Tremor grades this automatically against independently ingested outcome events once it closes — the probability above is never revised.
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