Atmospheric24 hourspartial
Atmospheric: 69% chance of at least one NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 538 km of WE in the next 24 hours.
Probability
69%
Interval
62–76%
Opens
2026-08-16 20:02 UTC
Closes
2026-08-17 20:02 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- atmospheric
- metric
- severity
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the atmospheric domain occurs between 2026-08-16T20:02:51.335Z and 2026-08-17T20:02:51.335Z, within 538 km of 32.2961, 35.179, meeting or exceeding 62. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 62
Outcome
Resolved partial on 2026-08-17 22:01 UTC with a match score of 0.70.
Partial: "Severe Thunderstorm Warning alert in Arkansas" satisfied the domain and window but scored 0.7, short of the 0.75 threshold.
Evidence events: 3e0d7162-5cfa-445b-b409-d0d13903bc60
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.