Geopolitical12 monthsopen
Geopolitical: 80% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 72+) on 3 separate days within 73 km of Baghdad, Iraq in the next 12 months.
Probability
80%
Interval
70–90%
Opens
2026-10-01 22:00 UTC
Closes
2027-10-01 22:00 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- geopolitical
- metric
- severity
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when outcome events on 3 separate days in the geopolitical domain occur between 2026-10-01T22:00:33.539Z and 2027-10-01T22:00:33.539Z, within 73 km of 33.3951, 44.2952, meeting or exceeding 72. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 72
- min event count
- 3
Outcome
The window is still open. Tremor grades this automatically against independently ingested outcome events once it closes — the probability above is never revised.
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.