Atmospheric: 69% chance of at least one NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 751 km of IN, United States in the next 24 hours.
Probability
69%
Interval
62–76%
Opens
2026-08-16 18:01 UTC
Closes
2026-08-17 18:01 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- atmospheric
- metric
- severity
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the atmospheric domain occurs between 2026-08-16T18:01:01.841Z and 2026-08-17T18:01:01.841Z, within 751 km of 39.7997, -86.7643, meeting or exceeding 62. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 62
Outcome
Resolved matched on 2026-08-16 20:02 UTC with a match score of 1.00.
Matched "Severe Thunderstorm Warning alert in IL" (2026-08-16T18:25:00+00:00) with a match score of 1 (geo 1, intensity 1).
Evidence events: 67566d03-137e-4ff5-9ee6-dd9f283c6591, 54a84cdc-6764-4fa3-9235-6b905cc35b75, 8108a13f-90f2-4b72-ba26-d844a10073ab, 18776022-ed83-4b5a-8910-2cb51b8869c6, 1c9cc561-ee46-4fe0-8b43-7f43e7c5087e, df33997a-7e15-45cf-873c-0ea64eee66b4, 04ac19ce-4417-4851-a952-96183be460b6, 979fe76b-0409-4e87-b6b6-7b05b7b35267, f1f5b05a-30bb-4977-9aae-544001d1d64b, 5ca850ed-79c4-47ce-b4f4-a55a9afbb581, bb56ea80-b902-4d0d-8164-3b143a8851cf, 64f23a51-d898-4107-a84a-d48f02668622, 029ba506-4b9e-45f0-a482-272718dbf4bc, dc5ef584-bbfd-4bdc-855d-7b2041a8e977, 1fbf04bf-27be-42d5-a29b-eb54ace4624d, 093bd170-30a8-477d-a388-1dd27637b958, 9740a7eb-56a0-4cf7-a443-30416165e2d9, b882a891-2421-44d2-ad43-7b59697967d3, e424780c-c06f-4231-9f1a-b5476d96031f, f44b5ca1-d061-4ba2-b39d-0e565c3f41ee, 9e0c266a-be02-4d3b-8b64-c6420be7a20e
Was this useful?
Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.