Seismic7 daysopen
Seismic: 65% chance of an M5.5+ earthquake within 444 km of Pakistan (nationwide) and 7 km ESE of Baghlān, Afghanistan in the next 7 days.
Probability
65%
Interval
56–74%
Opens
2026-10-01 10:00 UTC
Closes
2026-10-08 10:00 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- seismic
- metric
- magnitude
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the seismic domain occur between 2026-10-01T10:00:33.506Z and 2026-10-08T10:00:33.506Z, within 444 km of 32.2197, 69.9261, meeting or exceeding 5.5. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 5.5
- min event count
- 1
Outcome
The window is still open. Tremor grades this automatically against independently ingested outcome events once it closes — the probability above is never revised.
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