Seismic24 hoursmatched
Seismic: 67% chance of at least one M5.0+ earthquake within 83 km of 68 km NNW of Ende, Indonesia in the next 24 hours.
Probability
67%
Interval
60–74%
Opens
2026-08-15 06:01 UTC
Closes
2026-08-16 06:01 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- seismic
- metric
- magnitude
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the seismic domain occurs between 2026-08-15T06:01:14.645Z and 2026-08-16T06:01:14.645Z, within 83 km of -8.2636, 120.9007, meeting or exceeding 5. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 5
Outcome
Resolved matched on 2026-08-15 08:02 UTC with a match score of 1.00.
Matched "M 5.1 - 71 km NNW of Ende, Indonesia" (2026-08-15T06:28:51.109+00:00) with a match score of 1 (geo 1, intensity 1).
Evidence events: 12a0eb38-0a6d-4a3d-b3ff-f5626f6ec9aa, c33357fe-45f5-4487-ad55-8507f4b1d1c4, 2b7ca659-042e-47a0-aa29-42707d883255
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.