Economic12 monthsopen
Economic: 74% chance of a financial-stress reading beyond 3.0 standard deviations on 3 separate days within 815 km of Switzerland (nationwide), France (nationwide) and 4 more in the next 12 months.
Probability
74%
Interval
66–83%
Opens
2026-10-02 02:00 UTC
Closes
2027-10-02 02:00 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- economic
- metric
- z_score
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when outcome events on 3 separate days in the economic domain occur between 2026-10-02T02:00:34.182Z and 2027-10-02T02:00:34.182Z, within 815 km of 48.2901, 5.8381, meeting or exceeding 3. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 3
- min event count
- 3
Outcome
The window is still open. Tremor grades this automatically against independently ingested outcome events once it closes — the probability above is never revised.
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