Seismic12 monthsopen
Seismic: 78% chance of an M6.5+ earthquake on 3 separate days within 474 km of El Salvador (nationwide); 142 km SSW of La Esperanza (El Zapotal), Mexico and 1 more in the next 12 months.
Probability
78%
Interval
69–86%
Opens
2026-09-30 12:00 UTC
Closes
2027-09-30 12:00 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- seismic
- metric
- magnitude
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when outcome events on 3 separate days in the seismic domain occur between 2026-09-30T12:00:33.499Z and 2027-09-30T12:00:33.499Z, within 474 km of 15.5874, -92.9309, meeting or exceeding 6.5. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 6.5
- min event count
- 3
Outcome
The window is still open. Tremor grades this automatically against independently ingested outcome events once it closes — the probability above is never revised.
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.