Atmospheric24 hourspartial
Atmospheric: 69% chance of at least one NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 158 km of Yemen in the next 24 hours.
Probability
69%
Interval
62–76%
Opens
2026-08-16 14:00 UTC
Closes
2026-08-17 14:00 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- atmospheric
- metric
- severity
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the atmospheric domain occurs between 2026-08-16T14:00:59.053Z and 2026-08-17T14:00:59.053Z, within 158 km of 14.6123, 45.2951, meeting or exceeding 62. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 62
Outcome
Resolved partial on 2026-08-17 14:01 UTC with a match score of 0.70.
Partial: "Severe Thunderstorm Warning alert in OK" satisfied the domain and window but scored 0.7, short of the 0.75 threshold.
Evidence events: 8f99a6f4-730a-436c-a9ab-218290cb8d71
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.