Atmospheric24 hoursmatched
Atmospheric: 69% chance of at least one NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 396 km of CA, United States in the next 24 hours.
Probability
69%
Interval
62–76%
Opens
2026-08-16 18:01 UTC
Closes
2026-08-17 18:01 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- atmospheric
- metric
- severity
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the atmospheric domain occurs between 2026-08-16T18:01:01.841Z and 2026-08-17T18:01:01.841Z, within 396 km of 35.0034, -115.0085, meeting or exceeding 62. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 62
Outcome
Resolved matched on 2026-08-17 10:01 UTC with a match score of 1.00.
Matched "Extreme Heat Warning alert in AZ" (2026-08-17T09:14:00+00:00) with a match score of 1 (geo 1, intensity 1).
Evidence events: db34ab5a-6810-4547-8dd4-810f3cd6295d, 8c1a2d3c-d589-462d-a485-af130e2ff3e6
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.