Atmospheric12 monthsopen
Atmospheric: 84% chance of at least one NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 50 km of BF in the next 12 months.
Probability
84%
Interval
76–92%
Opens
2026-08-14 16:34 UTC
Closes
2027-08-14 16:34 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- atmospheric
- metric
- severity
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the atmospheric domain occurs between 2026-08-14T16:34:58.527Z and 2027-08-14T16:34:58.527Z, within 50 km of 25.0833, -77.35, meeting or exceeding 62. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 62
Outcome
The window is still open. Tremor grades this automatically against independently ingested outcome events once it closes — the probability above is never revised.
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.