Atmospheric: 69% chance of at least one NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 642 km of NE, United States in the next 24 hours.
Probability
69%
Interval
62–76%
Opens
2026-08-16 18:01 UTC
Closes
2026-08-17 18:01 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- atmospheric
- metric
- severity
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the atmospheric domain occurs between 2026-08-16T18:01:01.841Z and 2026-08-17T18:01:01.841Z, within 642 km of 39.7319, -102.2244, meeting or exceeding 62. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 62
Outcome
Resolved matched on 2026-08-16 20:02 UTC with a match score of 1.00.
Matched "Flash Flood Warning alert in CO" (2026-08-16T19:12:00+00:00) with a match score of 1 (geo 1, intensity 1).
Evidence events: 37d89c8f-6fe3-40a0-ae23-c54425725b05, b1a41f32-f74b-4013-91f5-5f3a8525aebe, 25d22e11-b093-4cbf-a220-5fa82da5844c, c14cc58b-c99c-4946-8b3a-8c5280af099b, 2ca5e5dc-4596-40c1-b457-6d163127cd3d, 35b4d5e5-5990-4351-b9d2-964459d9aaaa, 67566d03-137e-4ff5-9ee6-dd9f283c6591, 04ac19ce-4417-4851-a952-96183be460b6
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.