Geopolitical24 hoursopen
Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 697 km of Sudan (nationwide) and Ethiopia (nationwide) in the next 24 hours.
Probability
67%
Interval
57–77%
Opens
2026-10-01 22:00 UTC
Closes
2026-10-02 22:00 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- geopolitical
- metric
- severity
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the geopolitical domain occur between 2026-10-01T22:00:33.539Z and 2026-10-02T22:00:33.539Z, within 697 km of 13.355, 31.644, meeting or exceeding 55. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 55
- min event count
- 1
Outcome
The window is still open. Tremor grades this automatically against independently ingested outcome events once it closes — the probability above is never revised.
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.