Atmospheric: 69% chance of at least one NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 938 km of CO, United States in the next 24 hours.
Probability
69%
Interval
62–76%
Opens
2026-08-16 20:02 UTC
Closes
2026-08-17 20:02 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- atmospheric
- metric
- severity
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the atmospheric domain occurs between 2026-08-16T20:02:51.335Z and 2026-08-17T20:02:51.335Z, within 938 km of 39.1671, -103.0897, meeting or exceeding 62. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 62
Outcome
Resolved matched on 2026-08-16 22:01 UTC with a match score of 1.00.
Matched "Severe Thunderstorm Warning alert in CO" (2026-08-16T20:09:00+00:00) with a match score of 1 (geo 1, intensity 1).
Evidence events: 538fcd5e-09bf-46e5-9bf8-25f3cfa73b69, f38291f2-651e-4e0c-93e4-1653d7dfddde, 20dbb039-f04e-47fa-b2f2-c34a539e7be0, 2d46b775-9c5a-4e7a-9024-2fb79b76e002, c027b569-036a-4392-8718-ba34b89ce3a6, 74b5bb16-8bf3-4bb7-abcb-73cebce33bf3, cd965891-cb62-43e5-89c6-d0a316900687, af29a7bc-3a6b-4465-b25c-6b26f30a2f14, 1041788c-603b-4cb1-990e-b0d0eb7a60be, ec9fe2a1-7d96-4d6e-9c1d-62e88e82da11, 034415eb-5536-4614-a71c-4fa30106d1ca, 01887d0a-5a46-4f8a-bc4a-c4d49e63c5bb, 294bc8cd-cdce-4199-8671-367be4012c77, b1e58b48-0f0d-455f-b528-b8b800204653, eead12d8-cc6d-41e5-ad6a-2ec1d12f22a2, e83bff39-c905-427c-a5ae-4d9aede60526, 9dfbae3e-1aee-4894-b878-d8e2b7fb53e9, 2d369fc2-d4cf-47d8-97db-2521b4231a8c, 423dd3fa-63db-43a8-88c1-9dc4e159c1be, 240286d5-520e-4283-9054-4dd01b329458, 1fa8ab7a-b247-47eb-8a33-90b6a883083b, 8ec0db08-8dbc-48d6-82e3-a589dca55d48, 944b6cdc-087b-487f-ac8a-0ebebf39671e, 93caee64-a164-40a1-ad8d-3062ac711b9d, 2f8c1ce5-d66e-4698-b01f-9a04dbd19461, 02213f27-7936-47c0-bcbe-aaa1441154ef, 345b1a57-19b8-4460-92ee-94ae8b000d32, 57ea60d7-d96b-4cf1-afb6-4cb2682739cf, 0a3a1335-38bc-493a-aedd-645f0f4b69c8
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.