Atmospheric12 monthsopen
Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 486 km of Texas, Oklahoma and 1 more, United States in the next 12 months.
Probability
84%
Interval
77–91%
Opens
2026-10-01 18:00 UTC
Closes
2027-10-01 18:00 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- atmospheric
- metric
- severity
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when outcome events on 3 separate days in the atmospheric domain occur between 2026-10-01T18:00:33.565Z and 2027-10-01T18:00:33.565Z, within 486 km of 33.4082, -99.3327, meeting or exceeding 80. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 80
- min event count
- 3
Outcome
The window is still open. Tremor grades this automatically against independently ingested outcome events once it closes — the probability above is never revised.
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.