Atmospheric24 hourspartial
Atmospheric: 69% chance of at least one NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 50 km of Canada in the next 24 hours.
Probability
69%
Interval
62–76%
Opens
2026-08-17 00:02 UTC
Closes
2026-08-18 00:02 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- atmospheric
- metric
- severity
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the atmospheric domain occurs between 2026-08-17T00:02:43.359Z and 2026-08-18T00:02:43.359Z, within 50 km of 48.4, -89.2333, meeting or exceeding 62. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 62
Outcome
Resolved partial on 2026-08-18 02:00 UTC with a match score of 0.70.
Partial: "Special Marine Warning alert in Atlantic offshore waters" satisfied the domain and window but scored 0.7, short of the 0.75 threshold.
Evidence events: a679ffae-b523-4cae-a5c8-f6cab0e80a4f
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.