Atmospheric24 hoursmatched
Atmospheric: 69% chance of at least one NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 231 km of US, United States in the next 24 hours.
Probability
69%
Interval
62–76%
Opens
2026-08-16 10:00 UTC
Closes
2026-08-17 10:00 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- atmospheric
- metric
- severity
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the atmospheric domain occurs between 2026-08-16T10:00:40.304Z and 2026-08-17T10:00:40.304Z, within 231 km of 18.9137, -154.6958, meeting or exceeding 62. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 62
Outcome
Resolved matched on 2026-08-16 14:00 UTC with a match score of 0.94.
Matched "Flash Flood Warning alert in HI" (2026-08-16T12:07:00+00:00) with a match score of 0.944 (geo 0.813, intensity 1).
Evidence events: df1d91eb-afbb-44be-b128-2b97ec827dbf, 2fd4e396-bff0-45b8-acb5-b76341894508
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.