Atmospheric24 hoursmatched
Atmospheric: 69% chance of at least one NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 255 km of HI, United States in the next 24 hours.
Probability
69%
Interval
62–76%
Opens
2026-08-16 22:01 UTC
Closes
2026-08-17 22:01 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- atmospheric
- metric
- severity
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the atmospheric domain occurs between 2026-08-16T22:01:05.673Z and 2026-08-17T22:01:05.673Z, within 255 km of 19.9098, -156.0901, meeting or exceeding 62. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 62
Outcome
Resolved matched on 2026-08-17 04:01 UTC with a match score of 1.00.
Matched "Flash Flood Warning alert in HI" (2026-08-17T00:52:00+00:00) with a match score of 1 (geo 1, intensity 1).
Evidence events: 08d00e1f-84c3-4a2f-9025-fc4ea95ec988, 7eddea3f-2cd7-4867-806f-780f832ad441, 2e224aaa-5ecc-4f92-8e9a-446e6b64899a
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.