Seismic12 monthsopen
Seismic: 78% chance of an M6.5+ earthquake on 3 separate days within 360 km of Tokyo and 12 km SSE of Hasaki, Japan in the next 12 months.
Probability
78%
Interval
69–86%
Opens
2026-10-01 04:00 UTC
Closes
2027-10-01 04:00 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- seismic
- metric
- magnitude
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when outcome events on 3 separate days in the seismic domain occur between 2026-10-01T04:00:33.394Z and 2027-10-01T04:00:33.394Z, within 360 km of 37.7895, 140.5587, meeting or exceeding 6.5. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 6.5
- min event count
- 3
Outcome
The window is still open. Tremor grades this automatically against independently ingested outcome events once it closes — the probability above is never revised.
Was this useful?
Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.