Space weather12 monthsopen
Space weather: 76% chance of geomagnetic activity reaching Kp 7 or higher on 3 separate days within 784 km of Nigeria (nationwide), Benin (nationwide) and 2 more in the next 12 months.
Probability
76%
Interval
68–84%
Opens
2026-09-30 08:00 UTC
Closes
2027-09-30 08:00 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- spaceweather
- metric
- kp
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when outcome events on 3 separate days in the spaceweather domain occur between 2026-09-30T08:00:33.441Z and 2027-09-30T08:00:33.441Z, within 784 km of 9.1622, 6.2313, meeting or exceeding 7. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 7
- min event count
- 3
Outcome
The window is still open. Tremor grades this automatically against independently ingested outcome events once it closes — the probability above is never revised.
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.