Atmospheric24 hourspartial
Atmospheric: 69% chance of at least one NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 50 km of Sudan in the next 24 hours.
Probability
69%
Interval
62–76%
Opens
2026-08-16 12:01 UTC
Closes
2026-08-17 12:01 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- atmospheric
- metric
- severity
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the atmospheric domain occurs between 2026-08-16T12:01:01.415Z and 2026-08-17T12:01:01.415Z, within 50 km of 13.4411, 30.662, meeting or exceeding 62. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 62
Outcome
Resolved partial on 2026-08-17 12:03 UTC with a match score of 0.70.
Partial: "Severe Thunderstorm Warning alert in OK" satisfied the domain and window but scored 0.7, short of the 0.75 threshold.
Evidence events: b5d3d75e-27df-43a4-907e-02a637fbcfa4
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.