Geopolitical24 hourspartial
Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 655 km of AZ, United States in the next 24 hours.
Probability
67%
Interval
60–74%
Opens
2026-08-15 20:01 UTC
Closes
2026-08-16 20:01 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- geopolitical
- metric
- severity
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the geopolitical domain occurs between 2026-08-15T20:01:39.660Z and 2026-08-16T20:01:39.660Z, within 655 km of 36.0796, -113.6217, meeting or exceeding 55. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 55
Outcome
Resolved partial on 2026-08-16 20:02 UTC with a match score of 0.70.
Partial: "Elevated coercive activity in Pakistan" satisfied the domain and window but scored 0.7, short of the 0.75 threshold.
Evidence events: 58b0d740-af9d-4545-a15b-012851b6e2d4
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.