Atmospheric: 69% chance of at least one NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 654 km of AZ, United States in the next 24 hours.
Probability
69%
Interval
62–76%
Opens
2026-08-17 00:02 UTC
Closes
2026-08-18 00:02 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- atmospheric
- metric
- severity
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the atmospheric domain occurs between 2026-08-17T00:02:43.359Z and 2026-08-18T00:02:43.359Z, within 654 km of 33.7797, -109.9896, meeting or exceeding 62. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 62
Outcome
Resolved matched on 2026-08-17 04:01 UTC with a match score of 1.00.
Matched "Flash Flood Warning alert in CO" (2026-08-17T00:57:00+00:00) with a match score of 1 (geo 1, intensity 1).
Evidence events: 2f5cf643-6d25-41b3-9851-de1f9351599f, cda97427-1e90-4a80-a517-955d3d5681e5, 88139ea7-89e3-4ca6-9e3d-1b47a6b7e3f7, f6d37ec3-5e28-42d1-a613-db9b7221c9b2, 4862b6cb-0649-439f-8f68-ddc88b090075, c00a0785-931b-429e-8b84-eb192f719684, 1b4a1507-093f-475b-b0de-0e84c63bd8ed, 81c7f655-8532-463f-89ef-90c939a35654, 8b0ebec6-4731-4911-909a-17351b21ad2c
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.