Geopolitical24 hoursmatched
Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 554 km of IL, United States in the next 24 hours.
Probability
67%
Interval
60–74%
Opens
2026-08-16 02:01 UTC
Closes
2026-08-17 02:01 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- geopolitical
- metric
- severity
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the geopolitical domain occurs between 2026-08-16T02:01:37.395Z and 2026-08-17T02:01:37.395Z, within 554 km of 40.378, -90.996, meeting or exceeding 55. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 55
Outcome
Resolved matched on 2026-08-16 18:01 UTC with a match score of 0.81.
Matched "Elevated coercive activity in Canada" (2026-08-16T17:01:04.222+00:00) with a match score of 0.811 (geo 0.37, intensity 1).
Evidence events: 1e48e4c7-0101-4e3b-a57b-1fd9102598a8
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.