Atmospheric24 hoursmatched
Atmospheric: 69% chance of at least one NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 228 km of AL, United States in the next 24 hours.
Probability
69%
Interval
62–76%
Opens
2026-08-16 08:01 UTC
Closes
2026-08-17 08:01 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- atmospheric
- metric
- severity
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the atmospheric domain occurs between 2026-08-16T08:01:31.437Z and 2026-08-17T08:01:31.437Z, within 228 km of 32.5435, -87.6869, meeting or exceeding 62. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 62
Outcome
Resolved matched on 2026-08-16 14:00 UTC with a match score of 0.91.
Matched "Special Marine Warning alert in FL" (2026-08-16T13:38:00+00:00) with a match score of 0.911 (geo 0.702, intensity 1).
Evidence events: 00f0d94e-17cc-495d-82f1-4d7baadcc281, 77a8420f-0dfa-4460-85d7-3f12cbfc3980, 44369d5b-eb9d-4c78-b6e1-98be397c98a0
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.