Geopolitical24 hourspartial
Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 438 km of Pakistan in the next 24 hours.
Probability
67%
Interval
60–74%
Opens
2026-08-16 20:02 UTC
Closes
2026-08-17 20:02 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- geopolitical
- metric
- severity
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the geopolitical domain occurs between 2026-08-16T20:02:51.335Z and 2026-08-17T20:02:51.335Z, within 438 km of 30.9889, 68.569, meeting or exceeding 55. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 55
Outcome
Resolved partial on 2026-08-17 22:01 UTC with a match score of 0.70.
Partial: "Elevated coercive activity in Australia" satisfied the domain and window but scored 0.7, short of the 0.75 threshold.
Evidence events: 71ac6de3-b13f-4fba-953d-38c4d3979bc0
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