Atmospheric: 69% chance of at least one NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 583 km of AL, United States in the next 24 hours.
Probability
69%
Interval
62–76%
Opens
2026-08-17 02:00 UTC
Closes
2026-08-18 02:00 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- atmospheric
- metric
- severity
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the atmospheric domain occurs between 2026-08-17T02:00:08.226Z and 2026-08-18T02:00:08.226Z, within 583 km of 30.4186, -87.4074, meeting or exceeding 62. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 62
Outcome
Resolved matched on 2026-08-17 04:01 UTC with a match score of 0.85.
Matched "Flash Flood Warning alert in KY" (2026-08-17T02:53:00+00:00) with a match score of 0.846 (geo 0.488, intensity 1).
Evidence events: be1323a2-a266-4637-b767-2d2ae33e46bc, 36fb26c2-1451-43ef-b75b-3fef19d45f25, c3fe0b09-a8b1-41d0-8e7f-e196e000422a, 45882f08-f289-4a7a-bc7d-3916ede8a72a, ee0dd7e2-46fb-4409-84ba-dff484f0b2d2, 61a66560-bf15-48a1-9ee1-87d45984664e, 799a8b1d-789f-4c5f-97b8-8f831d7b9b66, 9aaedbd2-a6af-4457-9330-92e2f6cdfda6
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.