Geopolitical7 daysopen
Geopolitical: 66% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 60+) within 50 km of Somalia (nationwide) in the next 7 days.
Probability
66%
Interval
56–76%
Opens
2026-10-02 02:00 UTC
Closes
2026-10-09 02:00 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- geopolitical
- metric
- severity
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the geopolitical domain occur between 2026-10-02T02:00:34.182Z and 2026-10-09T02:00:34.182Z, within 50 km of 6, 48, meeting or exceeding 60. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 60
- min event count
- 1
Outcome
The window is still open. Tremor grades this automatically against independently ingested outcome events once it closes — the probability above is never revised.
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.