Seismic24 hourspartial
Seismic: 67% chance of at least one M5.0+ earthquake within 276 km of Pakistan in the next 24 hours.
Probability
67%
Interval
60–74%
Opens
2026-08-15 00:00 UTC
Closes
2026-08-16 00:00 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- seismic
- metric
- magnitude
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the seismic domain occurs between 2026-08-15T00:00:18.391Z and 2026-08-16T00:00:18.391Z, within 276 km of 34.5722, 71.7815, meeting or exceeding 5. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 5
Outcome
Resolved partial on 2026-08-16 00:00 UTC with a match score of 0.70.
Partial: "M 5.4 - 38 km SSE of Severo-Kuril’sk, Russia" satisfied the domain and window but scored 0.7, short of the 0.75 threshold.
Evidence events: a3dd3c41-2eac-4a5e-ab6d-1e40955538ac
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