Atmospheric24 hoursmatched
Atmospheric: 69% chance of at least one NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 643 km of NE, United States in the next 24 hours.
Probability
69%
Interval
62–76%
Opens
2026-08-16 10:00 UTC
Closes
2026-08-17 10:00 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- atmospheric
- metric
- severity
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the atmospheric domain occurs between 2026-08-16T10:00:40.304Z and 2026-08-17T10:00:40.304Z, within 643 km of 39.6562, -101.5944, meeting or exceeding 62. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 62
Outcome
Resolved matched on 2026-08-16 18:01 UTC with a match score of 0.97.
Matched "Flood Warning alert in IA" (2026-08-16T15:54:00+00:00) with a match score of 0.973 (geo 0.91, intensity 1).
Evidence events: 7b4e7146-303f-4422-bee5-32fceb903936, 0156eb9d-2445-494a-9d48-3727b4a0e5e6, ae5ab455-29ff-47f2-a39d-2fc4a533c6ca, ce677ba8-2623-4a5c-9916-6ec733a54f65, 3ef690f2-cb17-4a0a-a960-fdbc4a55e8c8
Was this useful?
Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.