Atmospheric24 hoursmatched
Atmospheric: 69% chance of at least one NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 382 km of TX, United States in the next 24 hours.
Probability
69%
Interval
62–76%
Opens
2026-08-16 14:00 UTC
Closes
2026-08-17 14:00 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- atmospheric
- metric
- severity
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the atmospheric domain occurs between 2026-08-16T14:00:59.053Z and 2026-08-17T14:00:59.053Z, within 382 km of 32.5046, -106.1768, meeting or exceeding 62. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 62
Outcome
Resolved matched on 2026-08-16 18:01 UTC with a match score of 0.87.
Matched "Extreme Heat Watch alert in AZ" (2026-08-16T17:45:00+00:00) with a match score of 0.868 (geo 0.56, intensity 1).
Evidence events: 3ef690f2-cb17-4a0a-a960-fdbc4a55e8c8
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.