Geopolitical24 hourspartial
Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 356 km of Nigeria in the next 24 hours.
Probability
67%
Interval
60–74%
Opens
2026-08-16 02:01 UTC
Closes
2026-08-17 02:01 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- geopolitical
- metric
- severity
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the geopolitical domain occurs between 2026-08-16T02:01:37.395Z and 2026-08-17T02:01:37.395Z, within 356 km of 8.3625, 6.131, meeting or exceeding 55. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 55
Outcome
Resolved partial on 2026-08-17 04:01 UTC with a match score of 0.70.
Partial: "Elevated coercive activity in Australia" satisfied the domain and window but scored 0.7, short of the 0.75 threshold.
Evidence events: 71ac6de3-b13f-4fba-953d-38c4d3979bc0
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