Atmospheric: 69% chance of at least one NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 348 km of NE, United States in the next 24 hours.
Probability
69%
Interval
62–76%
Opens
2026-08-16 20:02 UTC
Closes
2026-08-17 20:02 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- atmospheric
- metric
- severity
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the atmospheric domain occurs between 2026-08-16T20:02:51.335Z and 2026-08-17T20:02:51.335Z, within 348 km of 39.9536, -103.243, meeting or exceeding 62. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 62
Outcome
Resolved matched on 2026-08-16 22:01 UTC with a match score of 1.00.
Matched "Severe Thunderstorm Warning alert in CO" (2026-08-16T20:09:00+00:00) with a match score of 1 (geo 1, intensity 1).
Evidence events: 538fcd5e-09bf-46e5-9bf8-25f3cfa73b69, 20dbb039-f04e-47fa-b2f2-c34a539e7be0, 2d46b775-9c5a-4e7a-9024-2fb79b76e002, cd965891-cb62-43e5-89c6-d0a316900687, ec9fe2a1-7d96-4d6e-9c1d-62e88e82da11, 01887d0a-5a46-4f8a-bc4a-c4d49e63c5bb, 294bc8cd-cdce-4199-8671-367be4012c77, b1e58b48-0f0d-455f-b528-b8b800204653, 9dfbae3e-1aee-4894-b878-d8e2b7fb53e9, 2d369fc2-d4cf-47d8-97db-2521b4231a8c
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.