Atmospheric24 hoursmatched
Atmospheric: 69% chance of at least one NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 648 km of NE, United States in the next 24 hours.
Probability
69%
Interval
62–76%
Opens
2026-08-16 08:01 UTC
Closes
2026-08-17 08:01 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- atmospheric
- metric
- severity
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the atmospheric domain occurs between 2026-08-16T08:01:31.437Z and 2026-08-17T08:01:31.437Z, within 648 km of 39.6889, -101.6607, meeting or exceeding 62. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 62
Outcome
Resolved matched on 2026-08-16 12:01 UTC with a match score of 1.00.
Matched "Severe Thunderstorm Warning alert in NE" (2026-08-16T09:23:00+00:00) with a match score of 1 (geo 1, intensity 1).
Evidence events: 0011137a-1ccc-49d9-ab8b-a2bf56692351
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.