Seismic30 daysmatched
Seismic: 68% chance of at least one M6.0+ earthquake within 97 km of 68 km NNW of Ende, Indonesia in the next 30 days.
Probability
68%
Interval
61–75%
Opens
2026-08-15 08:02 UTC
Closes
2026-09-14 08:02 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- seismic
- metric
- magnitude
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the seismic domain occurs between 2026-08-15T08:02:56.164Z and 2026-09-14T08:02:56.164Z, within 97 km of -8.2215, 121.0289, meeting or exceeding 6. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 6
Outcome
Resolved matched on 2026-08-15 10:01 UTC with a match score of 0.90.
Matched "M 4.9 - 65 km NNW of Ende, Indonesia" (2026-08-15T09:32:53.8+00:00) with a match score of 0.898 (geo 1, intensity 0.49).
Evidence events: 20494cb1-73f5-4ce8-8596-0425485b90e7
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.