Atmospheric: 69% chance of at least one NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 852 km of PA, United States in the next 24 hours.
Probability
69%
Interval
62–76%
Opens
2026-08-16 20:02 UTC
Closes
2026-08-17 20:02 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- atmospheric
- metric
- severity
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the atmospheric domain occurs between 2026-08-16T20:02:51.335Z and 2026-08-17T20:02:51.335Z, within 852 km of 39.4165, -83.9608, meeting or exceeding 62. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 62
Outcome
Resolved matched on 2026-08-16 22:01 UTC with a match score of 1.00.
Matched "Flash Flood Warning alert in PA" (2026-08-16T20:15:00+00:00) with a match score of 1 (geo 1, intensity 1).
Evidence events: 3111b835-e23a-4b27-85f4-2aa14ae7f8b8, d0d20be1-9120-4236-93d8-4ac7b7dd0b02, 9ffe2077-34d6-4633-b8ea-b514a0312c20, 0345ae34-5daa-458c-ba38-15660a8508f3, 1fa8ab7a-b247-47eb-8a33-90b6a883083b, c564b389-2c48-4324-a9fc-40d718cb9058, e36bb4e5-4a7b-4322-8d8e-10b15d3ed4e2, 510361ff-4c06-49e8-b974-102087728d7d, d21ae22f-5083-47fd-a638-f57fcae8e13d, 93caee64-a164-40a1-ad8d-3062ac711b9d, 39966dac-cd24-476e-b48e-3c05e4dc3b7b, 8ec0db08-8dbc-48d6-82e3-a589dca55d48, 18b00683-aa4b-4ec0-994f-736ae9b4291d, e6571c29-c7d5-4142-ba5f-137dabaafb50, 334f23ec-bcfb-435d-a6ee-8aaecbc74cc7, 57ea60d7-d96b-4cf1-afb6-4cb2682739cf, a054a2af-5e1e-4bad-a034-71593319d71b, 37c4d286-c4a8-43e1-8990-dacd85db9f92, 4e2aaa57-7523-49b4-8682-25c65af0691b, 4639e31a-6c79-4c0d-9167-19e98e15eade, 345b1a57-19b8-4460-92ee-94ae8b000d32, 5cc3b14c-e2ad-4dc9-9717-82ae54648065, 407e7974-4b51-432f-877a-636478561e63, f8cf64e3-15ac-4028-902f-2ab641ad1183, 6f3e5585-c461-4f98-9aa2-aebc4a3f1752, 12d22fce-90ae-4aaf-b5fb-901df774565e, 2f8c1ce5-d66e-4698-b01f-9a04dbd19461, 5f1fe781-cebe-415f-8630-80b143103843, 6418c66b-d8c2-4278-80c2-f781ed5e8b88, af29a7bc-3a6b-4465-b25c-6b26f30a2f14, 9e040612-2421-4951-b277-b225e6f5c264, 0a3a1335-38bc-493a-aedd-645f0f4b69c8, 02213f27-7936-47c0-bcbe-aaa1441154ef, 944b6cdc-087b-487f-ac8a-0ebebf39671e, 2270671c-466e-48e4-b332-3db760b2d26e, 5d491568-95b4-4dea-9f78-f19b5a2dbafb, 1ef92a32-b961-48b6-94e1-ccf0a263fb5f, 214f1fb1-9407-4a58-9c9d-b641c3415899, d57e368d-88de-4dce-8adb-c08291db360e, 4a7a91bd-8536-4fc2-9177-5e17a5d7c8a0, d3914c03-74df-4ef6-8c41-f1525988b251, 9c86967a-79cd-4bcd-9717-af6cf4e37f0d, f54dc7bf-6254-458a-9e08-929024a67318, 75592aa3-4d06-4c55-9473-a0a82787986f, 1041788c-603b-4cb1-990e-b0d0eb7a60be, eead12d8-cc6d-41e5-ad6a-2ec1d12f22a2, 423dd3fa-63db-43a8-88c1-9dc4e159c1be
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.