Seismic24 hourspartial
Seismic: 67% chance of at least one M5.0+ earthquake within 382 km of TX, United States in the next 24 hours.
Probability
67%
Interval
60–74%
Opens
2026-08-16 12:01 UTC
Closes
2026-08-17 12:01 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- seismic
- metric
- magnitude
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the seismic domain occurs between 2026-08-16T12:01:01.415Z and 2026-08-17T12:01:01.415Z, within 382 km of 32.5046, -106.1768, meeting or exceeding 5. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 5
Outcome
Resolved partial on 2026-08-17 12:03 UTC with a match score of 0.70.
Partial: "M 5.1 - 28 km SW of Kandrian, Papua New Guinea" satisfied the domain and window but scored 0.7, short of the 0.75 threshold.
Evidence events: 71396e6d-0d9c-4b76-8db2-f0856ac1bade
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.