Seismic24 hourspartial
Seismic: 67% chance of at least one M5.0+ earthquake within 167 km of 7 km NNW of Pematangsiantar, Indonesia in the next 24 hours.
Probability
67%
Interval
60–74%
Opens
2026-08-15 18:01 UTC
Closes
2026-08-16 18:01 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- seismic
- metric
- magnitude
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the seismic domain occurs between 2026-08-15T18:01:39.550Z and 2026-08-16T18:01:39.550Z, within 167 km of 3.0027, 100.5451, meeting or exceeding 5. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 5
Outcome
Resolved partial on 2026-08-16 20:02 UTC with a match score of 0.70.
Partial: "M 5.5 - Volcano Islands, Japan region" satisfied the domain and window but scored 0.7, short of the 0.75 threshold.
Evidence events: aa9c8953-f9d3-4dd8-b341-bd052cf32cdb
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.