Seismic7 daysmatched
Seismic: 65% chance of at least one M5.0+ earthquake within 101 km of 68 km NNW of Ende, Indonesia in the next 7 days.
Probability
65%
Interval
58–72%
Opens
2026-08-15 14:01 UTC
Closes
2026-08-22 14:01 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- seismic
- metric
- magnitude
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the seismic domain occurs between 2026-08-15T14:01:10.775Z and 2026-08-22T14:01:10.775Z, within 101 km of -8.2504, 121.0649, meeting or exceeding 5. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 5
Outcome
Resolved matched on 2026-08-15 18:01 UTC with a match score of 0.91.
Matched "M 4.5 - 54 km NNW of Ende, Indonesia" (2026-08-15T17:21:07.767+00:00) with a match score of 0.908 (geo 1, intensity 0.54).
Evidence events: cf0df5d6-4ada-46fb-b866-e70bc447120b
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.